![]() ![]() The robustness of hindsight bias is affirmed but it is strongly recommended that the reversal hypothesis offered by Mazursky and Ofir (1990) be accommodated.Ībstract In this paper we demonstrate that intuitive numerical predictions can be somewhat regressive. The alternative hypotheses and interpretations offered by them are discussed in detail, shown to be invalid, and ruled out. The present paper responds to Mark and Mellor's (1994) comments and also addresses general questions regarding the hindsight bias and its reversal. Instead, their judgments represent either the elimination of the bias or even its reversal. When asked to provide retrospective judgments, they would tend to provide judgments that are not in accordance with the hindsight bias. Mazursky and Ofir (1990) postulated that people may acknowledge their surprise at highly unexpected outcomes. Rather, the entry decisions of most of the subjects can be characterized by local adjustments to the outcome of the previous iteration of the same game along the lines suggested by anticipatory learning models.Ībstract Research conducted by Mazursky and Ofir (1990) suggests that the reaction to a surprising event may take the form of ‘I could not have expected it to happen’ rather than ‘I knew it all along,’ as implied by the hindsight bias. However, this coordination is not achieved via individual-level randomization. The results show a remarkable degree of tacit coordination that supports the equilibrium solution under the assumption of common risk aversion. We construct the Nash equilibrium solution to this game and then test it experimentally in the special case where each lottery yields only a single prize. In contrast to the widely studied paradigm of choice between gambles in individual decision making under risk in which the probabilities of the prizes are given, the probability of winning a prize in each of the lotteries in our study is known to decrease in the number of agents choosing this lottery. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 172, 104169.We study a class of interactive decision-making situations in which each agent must choose to participate in one of several lotteries with commonly known prizes. Sweet ideas: How the sensory experience of sweetness impacts creativity. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 173, 104191. Embracing multicultural tensions: How team members' multicultural paradox mindsets foster team information elaboration and creativity. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 168, 104107. Illumination and elbow grease: A theory of how mental models of the creative process influence creativity. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 172, 104168. Love at first insight: An attachment perspective on early-phase idea selection.
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